How Carson Wentz Fooled the Entire League
Carson Wentz has never had a sustainable style of play. Not even in 2017. Anyone who actually paid close attention to him in 2017 could have predicted a HUGE fall off. Carson Wentz was only good on third down. And by good, I mean, incredibly amazing. If only 3rd downs were accounted for Wentz would have won the MVP by a MILE. If only 3rd downs were accounted for Wentz would have probably had a top 3 quarterback season of all time.
Carson Wentz on first and second down was an incredibly average quarterback. If you look at the graph above(Figure 1), you can see Carson Wentz compared to the league on 1st and 2nd down. Looking at this graph you would be confused on how Carson Wentz was not on the hot seat, let alone an MVP Candidate.
But then we look at his third down statistics.
On third down in 2017, Carson Wentz may have quite literally been the best quarterback in the history of the NFL. If you look at the graph below(Figure 2) you can see that Carson Wentz led the league in EPA/play and CPOE by a MILE. He increased his CPOE(completion % over expected) by 380%. He increased his EPA/play by about 600%. That sort of leap is unheard of. He also led the league in passer rating with a 127 rating, 20 points above the next best QB. We can also see that the Eagles had the most efficient offense in the league on third down(Figure 3) with a 150% higher EPA/dropback than the next best team. Carson Wentz was a monster when it came to third down and somehow was below average on first and second. Why? Well, the only person who can tell you that is Carson Wentz himself.
Why is this level of play not sustainable?
This is because every elite quarterback is elite on every single down, not just one. Being good consistently is a trait every good QB needs to have. Showing up only on one down, and that down being third down is wasting a bunch of opportunities. If you look at the 3 figures below(4, 5, 6, 7) you can tell that the elite quarterbacks like Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, etc. have consistently been good on every down, not just one. On top of that, Wentz was near the top of the league in time to throw, which leads to more sacks. If you look at the bottom graph(Figure 8) you can see the direct correlation between the two. Holding onto the ball for longer leads to more hits, and therefore leads to a higher risk of injury which is also why Wentz happened to be very injury prone.
The point that I am trying to make is that Carson Wentz was never an elite quarterback, and his downfall was imminent. I do not think he is going to have success on the Colts, and I do not think he is a top 25 quarterback in the league right now. His situation was never the problem, he was the problem. Carson Wentz fooled the entire league into a massive contract extension and should not have a starting job in the NFL.
Data from: https://rbsdm.com/
