What is the Key Ingredient to Patrick Mahomes Unreal Success?
Patrick Mahomes is the consensus best player in the league at the most valuable position. He has been breaking records since his second year and already has more All-Pro first teams than some elite veterans. The craziest part of it all is that he’s only 25 and is already in the discussion for a top 10 quarterback of all time. By the end of his career, I actually have my bets on him being the clear GOAT. But what is the key to Mahomes’ success?
One of the biggest factors to Mahomes’ success is his ability to be aggressive with the ball. Since 2018, Pat Mahomes ranks 5th in average air yards, higher than players like Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, and Aaron Rodgers. But why does this even matter? We can see that there is a pretty good correlation between average air yards and EPA/play. This means that players that are more aggressive and take more chances downfield are a lot more successful. Patrick Mahomes is the best in the league at doing that, hence why he is so statistically successful.
To further that point we can take a look at a metric called Air Yards Over Expected. Check out this article by Tej Seth to really understand how this metric works, and why it actually matters. This graph here (Figure 4) shows the correlation between EPA/play and AYOE and we can see that Mahomes is definitely above league average when it comes to being aggressive. But the reason why his EPA is so high compared to the rest of the players above him is that he is situationally aggressive. Just being aggressive and launching balls downfield isn’t going to make you successful, but knowing WHEN to be aggressive is the important part, and that’s what makes Mahomes so great.
Another huge part of Mahomes’ game is his ability to extend plays. Defenses tend to wear down as the play goes on and we can see how quarterbacks take advantage of that. Most quarterbacks tend to get sacked within the first second when faced with pressure, but after that first second, things tend to average out. Not with Mahomes though. According to PFF after that initial second of being faced with pressure Mahomes EPA basically doubles the league average. After 3 seconds of facing pressure, Mahomes EPA/dropback is around 0.5 while the league average is closer to -0.6. This is due to his ability to avoid taking sacks. Most quarterbacks would have taken a sack by the 3-second mark, hence their EPA being so low, but Mahomes knows how to extend plays and be aggressive on those extended plays, making him so much better than league average.
Mahomes is a generational talent for a reason, he has all the talent in the world, he has an amazing football mind, and knows exactly what to do in every situation. He’s going to be great for years to come and he’s already changing the way the quarterback position is being played.
